One more week, and the points from the 2018 ATP Tour Finals will come off.
And Rafael Nadal will become No. 1 in the world again for the first time since … this time last year.
As it is, he’s only 320 points behind Djokovic.
Nadal won’t drop a single point, while Djokovic will lose 1,600 (1,000 from last year’s ATP Tour Finals, and another 600 for reaching the Paris Masters final),
Roger Federer, who will decide Monday whether he will play Paris, will drop 760 – 360 for reaching the Paris semis, and another 400 from the Tour Finals.
Last year’s Tour Finals champion, Alexander Zverev, will drop 1,480 points.
1,300 of those come from the Tour Finals, for which he has not yet qualified this season. So it’s a very big week for him – and his ranking.
The 2018 Paris Masters champ, Karen Khachanov, is defending his 1,000 points.
So this time next week, the top 10 could well look quite different.
ON THE UPSWING
Karen Khachanov (RUS): No. 9 ========> No. 8
Think we know who this young one is rooting for…
— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) October 26, 2019
Matteo Berrettini (ITA): No. 11 ========> No. 9 (The 23-year-old is coming to the end of a crazy breakout season, and has jumped into the top 10 for the first time after making the semis in Vienna . He’s in Khachanov’s section in Paris, but must face Rublev or Tsonga first).
Alex de Minaur (AUS): No. 28 ========> No. 18 (He couldn’t match Federer in the Basel final, but after a slow start to the season he breaks into the top 20 for the first time with his Basel final).
Benoit Paire (FRA): No. 25 ========> No. 23
Pablo Carreno Busta (ESP): No. 34 ========> No. 29 (Down to No. 63 a month ago, after some back woes early in the season, he’s back in the top 30).
Reilly Opelka (USA): No. 37 ========> No. 31 (The young American’s serve took him to the Basel semis, a career high and possibly a seed in Australia. He could have taken a special exempt into Paris, but didn’t).
Jan-Lennard Struff (GER): No. 41 ========> No. 36
Filip Krajinovic (SRB): No. 46 ========> No. 39 (Outside the top 100 in late April, the Serb has rallied nicely).
Ugo Humbert (FRA): No. 63 ========> No. 56
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (ESP): No. 93========> No. 82 (Another career high for the 20-year-old from Spain, who won the Liuzhou Challenger).
Jannik Sinner (ITA): No. 101 ========> No. 93 (The Italian teen is into the top 100 at age 18, after winning a round in Vienna. Beyond the Next Gen Finals, his season is reportedly not done as he’s signed on for a Challenger in Val Gardena, Italy in mid-November).
Evgeny Donskoy (RUS): No. 118 ========> No. 106 (Trying to squeeze into an Australian Open main draw slot).
Norbert Gombos (SVK): No. 119 ========> No. 109 (Ditto).
Hyeon Chung (KOR): No. 139 ========> No. 131
Marc Polmans (AUS): No. 154 ========> No. 137 (A career high, after winning the Traralgon Challenger).
ON THE DOWNSWING
Kei Nishikori (JPN): No. 8 ========> No. 11 (Surgery to remove two bone spurs in his elbow last week hopefully will resolve the issue that has plagued him the last months. He’s hopeful that he can return in time for a proper off-season training block).
Cristian Garin (CHI): No. 38 ========> No. 42
Kevin Anderson (RSA): No. 21 ========> No. 45 (And Anderson will drop another 490 points next Monday, which will see that number tumble to about No. 90).
Fernando Verdasco (ESP): No. 40 ========> No. 49
Jordan Thompson (AUS): No. 55 ========> No. 61
Mikhail Kukushkin (KAZ): No. 57 ========> No. 67
Alexei Popyrin (AUS): No. 88========> No. 95
Marius Copil (ROU): No. 82 ========> No. 156 (The 29-year-old went from the qualifying through to the final against Federer, a year ago in Basel. He beat Zverev, Marin Cilic, Taylor Fritz, Dusan Lajovic, Ryan Harrison and Mischa Zverev – all inside the top 75. This year, he fell to No. 10 Roberto Bautista Agut in the first round after going from the qualifying to the quarterfinals the previous week in Antwerp. It could cost him some money in Melbourne).
Vasek Pospisil (CAN): No. 168 ========> No. 174 (Pospisil back in action this week at the Charlotteville Challenger, seeded No. 10).
Thanasi Kokkinakis (AUS): No. 157 ========> No. 198 (The Aussie hasn’t played since reaching the final of the Tiburon Challenger a month ago. He hasn’t entered anything else the rest of the season).
Ernests Gulbis (LAT): No. 196 ========> No. 228 (Gulbis was at No. 74 in late February, and has no more tournaments planned this season. He’s only 31. But you wonder if we’ll see him in 2020).
RACE TO LONDON
Two spots remain, and one more week to get it done. Anyone has a shot.